Remember Lebanon War I,
remember Lebanon War II!

Simha Nyr, adv.

Operation “Protective Edge”, began like the
First Lebanon War – then because of the Katyushas, now because of the Qassams –
and will end like the Second Lebanon War: not with a knock-out, but only with
“victory points”. How much will Israel pay for the next draw, and how
much time will be gained for this price?

I am neither a pacifist, nor a blood-thirsty general, but
a horse dealer, who buys horses and sells them, trying to make some Lirot out
of this trade.

In a previous article about the ground invasion to Gaza I
said:

One of
the lessons of the Second Lebanon War was that a ground invasion to Hezbollah
territory was inevitable since one cannot carry out certain actions otherwise,
and that the ground invasion in that war was too late.

But a
ground invasion has a price, especially when it comes to cities like Gaza, for
cleaning it from weapons needs a massive entrance, maybe by several army
divisions.

To the
question whether I’m for or against a ground invasion, I will answer as
briefly: if one offers me 2,000 years of peace for but one Israeli soldier
lightly wounded, I would say “Give me twice of this stuff” but if one
offers me a shorter period of peace for more casualties – it will be a basis
for bargaining: à la
horse-trade comme à la horse-trade.

From the above said one can certainly understand that
it’s clear to me that sometimes wars are unavoidable, despite the sacrifices,
but one should think twice before jumping into the water.

Casualties
for two hundred years ahead

The spark that ignited the First Lebanon War, mostly
memorable as Operation Peace for Galilee, or Operation Shelleg, was the
assassination of the Israeli ambassador to London, Shlomo Argov, but its
justification was Katyusha shelling of Kiryat Shmona and other settlements in
the Galilee.

In the years preceding this war the Galilee indeed had
been shelled frequently, and there were casualties – amounting an average of
about five killed per year, and Israel went out to defeat this terrorism, and
indeed she annihilated him, but got a serious migraine: more than a thousand
dead soldiers who gave their lives to save five deaths a year.

In other words: This “saving” of human life
cost Israel fatalities for 200 years ahead, even more. 1200 fallen, if my
fading memory does not betray me.

If it were possible, if one could go back in the
time-machine revive the 1200 dead soldiers for some 120 people who would have
been killed by the Katyusha rockets between the two Lebanon wars, Israel would
have gained a “net profit” of about 1100 Israelis alive, with a
possible bonus that maybe peace would break out in-between, and death shall have no
dominion any more.

Minimum-maximum
estimates, doing homework

When going to war, like in entering any “civil”
project, one has to do one’s homework: assessing the minimum-maximum probable
achievements, against the minimum-maximum probable price – especially in human
lives.

No, I do not expect that the government, while deciding
on the ground invasion, will publish an announcement on its assessment of
“cost-efficiency”, but from politicians, journalists and
ret.-generals who push toward such invasion, I do expect it.

And my last question: what needs to happen eventually
that one, especially the government, would say if we knew that this would be
the results of the invasion, we would have opposed it?

The
draw

Four days before the end of the Second Lebanon War, under
the headline How Much Blood Needs to be Shed More, I wrote:

From
this war nothing good will come out.

This
war will end in a draw – whether we want it or not. It will end in a draw –
since neither party would be able to bring over the other a final and complete
defeat.

The
question is how much blood should be shed more in order to achieve the same
draw in which we are anyway.

On that day, maybe a day later, it was already clear that
it is going towards a cease-fire. The UN had already been in the picture, but
the State of Israel, rather than “watching the goal”, went out to
score more goals – just in order to improve the negotiating positions for
ceasefire.

That “Improving of positions” cost Israel the
lives of 30 – 40 soldiers, and the draw I predicted came true.

Facing
the truth

In his famous speech over Roi Rotenberg’s grave, in 1956,
Moshe Dayan said:

Let us
not cast blame on the murderers today. What should we claim about their burning
hatred for us? Eight years they are sitting in refugee camps in Gaza, and
against their eyes we turn to our domain the land and villages where they and
their ancestors lived.

… We
need to have an account open with ourselves today. We are a generation of
settlement, and without the steel helmet and muzzle of the gun, we cannot plant
a tree and build a house. Let us not get deterred from seeing the loathing that
is inflaming and filling the lives of hundreds of thousands of Arabs who sit
all around us. Let us not turn our eyes lest it will weaken us. This is
compelled on our generation. This is the choice of our life – to be prepared
and armed, strong and stiff, or the sword will drop from our fist, our lives
cut down.

Similar things said MK Hanin Zoabi about the kidnappers
and murderers of the three teens, and it outraged the whole world against
herself:

The
hijackers … are men who did not see any opening to change their reality, and
they use these means until Israel gets sober up a bit. Until the citizens and
the society of Israel sobers up and feel the suffering of others.

Moshe Dayan was already sober back then, 58 years ago: He
saw and felt the suffering of the Palestinians, but his answer was that it is Israel’s
destiny, to “eat sword” forever.

The state of Israel, today, knows that this is our
destiny, that no agreement with the Palestinians will be achieved in the next
generations (and maybe never will), and we shall “eat sword” forever,
but she will not admit it. She is fooling herself (in Hebrew, both country (ארץ) and state (מדינה) are feminine).

In this framework of self-deception Israel does all kinds
of manipulation, just to “buy time”, and to show the whole world that
the Israelis are incurable
peace-seekers, while the Arabs want only one thing: to destroy Israel, and
throw all the Jews to the sea.

Thus it was with the peace talks between Israel and the
Palestinians, which exploded recently: Benjamin Netanyahu and his government
knew that any agreement with them can’t be reached in the foreseeable future,
but they wanted to show the world that the Israelis, with their morbid desire
and lust for peace, are ready for “negotiation without
preconditions”. Yet, in the appropriate moment they are pulled out of
their hat the “winning rabbit”: a demand that the Arabs will
recognize Israel as a Jewish state …

The State of Israel does not really need this
“recognition”, but Bibi & Co. knew that the Arabs will not agree,
and that the Arab refusal will present them as peace seekers, and the Arab as
peace refuseniks, and this maneuver had succeeded.

A similar drill was done by Bibi & Co. these days,
when they jumped on the Egyptian cease-fire: They knew that Hamas would not
agree, and Israel will look beautiful in the eyes of the world.

Chapeau, Bibi!

Once
again there will be no knock-out

Ground incursion into Gaza will not buy the IDF an
overwhelming victory: no “knockout”, but only “victory by
points” as the prattling arrogant Chief of Staff Dan Haluts said then.

When will this invasion will be over?

When the rate of fatalities in Gaza would reach a level
the world will not accept, and the number of the Israeli fallen will reach a
level the Israeli society will not accept.

When this happens, both Israel and Hamas will look for a
ladder to go down the high trees they climbed on.

And what will it yield? A year, two or three years of
silence, and all over and over and over again.

________

This
article, in Hebrew, was published before the ground invasion to Gaza Strip,
in Protective Edge operation.

Read also: Tsipi Livni and Mahmoud Abbas Talk Peace (docudrama)

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